I traded GME last week with great success but saw the writing on the wall. GET OUT NOW!
Today, I was trading AG and GOLD. No problem right? After all, SLV was the Reddit target today and all of a sudden TD Ameritrade pulled it from Think or Swim platform so I settled for AG as a safe bet with a good company that mines and retails silver. Good right?
I had purchased it ‘Pre hours’ and after a while I could see it was going to go down before it headed back north so I went to sell it and take my profits and then buy back at a lower price with more shares. (Best laid plans)🤦♂️
TD wouldn’t allow my sell to go through and I was stuck. Then strangely, my Xfinity went down 5 minutes before market until 10 minutes into after open so I couldn’t see the prices or trade at all yet.
I tried my cellular access as the Xfinity was strangely down and all TD was not accessible until then either. (Coordinated)?
Once I finally got out AG at a HUGE loss, TD cut my ability to trade to 50% of my cash position which had gone up significantly from last week and so now I can only trade about 45% of my cash positions now. Wait, what? It’s my cash with no margin. If I lose it all it’s no skin off their backs.
But wait, that wasn’t sufficient to destroy the price and shareholders! Think or Swim has been delaying my orders by about 30 seconds to a minute before they go through.
As any trader knows, seconds are an eternity in stocks when they are volatile.
Steve Varney from fox BUSINESS news (I won’t watch the other, ever) says Elizabeth Warren wants to punish us little guys for making this money stealing from large hedge funds that ‘steal our money’ everyday.
A guest on Varney said these poor hedge funds are helping the markets by protecting the little guy by keeping the prices where they should be. What?
GameStop was shorted 140% of the company’s shares. 140%! In laymen’s term you sold a house you didn’t own and then you want to buy it back for a dollar. That wasn’t working so you sold 40% of the same house again.
And these hedge funds think that is protecting us?
Anyone else see that the masters are trying to put down the slave uprising?
(Friday Market Close) You could argue that the market spooked itself this week.
Now it wasn’t as if there weren’t external reasons for the downturn. Between worries about slow vaccine rollout, weak European economic data, the appearance of the South African variant of the virus here, and a few disappointing earnings reports, it’s easy to find a fundamental story to blame.
Still, it feels like the selloff, which accelerated Friday as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell nearly 2%, was more of a reaction to internal market developments. Anyone who’s paid attention knows about all the focus on short squeezesthat brought fame (and some fortune) to stocks like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC). There’ve been disruptions all over the world, and now the stock market is feeling some disruption and a change of tone. The short squeezes certainly had a lot to do with it. The way people interact with the market is a little different than in the past.
There’s also a sense that things in general had come too far, too fast, sending values too high and leading to calls for a little consolidation. Basically, the four main stock indices had rolled along full steam ahead with hardly a break since early November, and that made some people nervous, especially about valuations. The short squeezes seemed to reinforce some investors’ beliefs that it was time for a little profit taking.
It’s a storm of a lot of things coming together that’s leading to a disruption in the market overall. These kinds of disruptions occur every 10 or 12 years and the market has always survived them. People are reassessing their portfolios. Not just individuals, but funds, too. There’s a reassessment of value everywhere.
Some of the major stocks leading the downward charge Friday included all the “FAANGs” along with Microsoft (MSFT). Apple(AAPL)—which often has an outsized impact on the overall market due to its huge valuation—is down 8.5% since reaching an all-time high early this week. That’s despite a stellar earnings report. That’s the kind of thing that makes you wonder if we’re seeing some good old-fashioned profit taking.
From a sector standpoint, it looks like a few of the ones that had been doing best on the recent rally have fallen the hardest, including Energy, Info Tech, and Financials. The so-called “defensive” sectors, including Utilities and Health Care, did best on Friday.
Bumpy Ride Not Out of the Ordinary
It never feels good to lose money in the market, but it should feel familiar. Major indices generally experience several 5% drops each year and usually at least one 10% decline. The SPX hadn’t had any sort of serious backtracking since September when it fell around 9.6% from its highs. Then it went on a tear, chalking up gains of nearly 18% from the end of October up to its all-time highs earlier this month.
Gains were even heavier for the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT), which entered this week trading at about 1.37 times its 200-day moving average, the highest it’s been relative to the 200-day since at least 2000. Hopes for further fiscal stimulus, the Fed’s dovish monetary policy (which it again promised this week to keep that way for the long term), and vaccine progress all helped electrify Wall Street between November and January.
Now it feels like maybe things got a little ahead of themselves, considering all the challenges we still face. Europe is running low on vaccines. The U.S. rollout has been slower than expected. The Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine data today looked OK, but not amazing, and none of the vaccines seem to be as effective against this South African variant that has medical experts sounding nervous. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q4 wasn’t quite as good as some people had hoped and moderated from the breakneck pace of Q3.
Combine all that with earnings from Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA) that didn’t blow anyone out of the water, cruise lines once again pushing back their schedules, a bond market that showed new life, rising volatility, and an SPX valuation at historic highs, and it would have been kind of weird not to have some weakness in stocks.
Key Levels to Watch Include 30,000 in $DJI and 3700 in SPX
Despite this disappointing end to the week, try to keep things in perspective. The SPX is still up 13.5% in the last three months, and remains around 3.5% below this month’s all-time highs. If a market correction is defined as a 10% decline from the high, we’re not even halfway there yet. That might feel reassuring in one sense, but it should also mean caution. There could be more weakness ahead if this downturn is going to become a correction, which can’t be ruled out.
The argument against that is there just hasn’t been a lot of interest among investors to really push the market down over the last few months. Every time the SPX dropped to its 20-day moving average since Nov. 1, it met new buyers in what became called a “buy the dip” trade.
This week the SPX actually did fall below the 20-day and then tested the 50-day moving average, which was 3715 heading into Friday (see chart below). The question heading into next week is whether any technical support in that area holds, or if selling picks up. Longer-term technical support is in a range between 3633 and 3695, according to research firm CFRA. This is where the “buy the dip” crowd meets a test: Will they still want to buy the dip after the main crunch of earnings season ends and the world continues to stumble trying to fight the pandemic?
The two big numbers to watch could be 30,000 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) and 3700 in the SPX. The two indices flirted with those levels late Friday, and the $DJI ultimately closed just below 30,000. If it hops back above there Monday and manages to hold on, that would probably be seen as a technical victory that could promise a little recovery ahead.
It’s kind of interesting that all this happened at a time when you could point to some actual positive developments in the background. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) both reported earnings that are about as solid as it gets and next week brings Alphabet (GOOGL)and Amazon (AMZN). Other big names penciled into the earnings lineup next week include PayPal (PYPL), Alibaba (BABA), UPS(UPS), and Peloton (PTON). We’ll talk more about those reports and what to look for in them on Monday morning.
As these companies report, stimulus traction appears to be growing on Capitol Hill. Media coverage this week suggested Democrats might try to speed the $1.9 trillion legislation through Congress through reconciliation, which wouldn’t necessarily require Republican votes. Whatever you might think of the legislation itself, stimulus generally appears to have helped the stock market over the last few months. Next week we’ll see if it elbows its way back into the headlines in a big way, which has potential to be a helpful force for the market.
Volatility Explosion Could Keep Investors Cautious
What’s not helpful is the way volatility just exploded this week. On one day, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) skyrocketed to 37 from below 22. This isn’t something you often see, and overall the VIX had its biggest upside week since June.
Historically, VIX—sometimes called the market’s “fear index”—trades in ranges over periods of time. It spent a lot of time last fall between 25 and 30, and then early this year between 20 and 25. Now it’s back above 30, and that could indicate more concern about possible choppiness and deeper losses straight ahead. One interesting thing now vs. a week ago, however, is that VIX futures have gone from contango (where outer months are higher than the current level) to backwardation, where the current level outweighs future prices.
It was also positive to see the major indices bounce off of their lows late in Friday’s session, which could have positive ramifications as the new week starts. The SPX at one point on Friday dipped just below 3700, but didn’t seem to find much selling interest down there. One hallmark of last year’s steep selloff was failure to find buyers late on Fridays who were comfortable holding long positions into the weekend. This sometimes caused late-week selloffs to gain steam. That didn’t appear to be the case Friday, which isn’t a bad thing if you’re hoping for better times ahead.
Earnings, stimulus, and vaccination progress all remain key areas to watch as the new week begins. Also, consider closely checking futures market action Sunday night for possible clues about how Monday could open.
Despite Headlines, Vaccine Progress Appears Confirmed this Week
One more thing: JNJ’s vaccine data today took some of the blame for the market weakness, but most analysts didn’t think the data was actually all that disappointing. As they said, it appears to be more effective than the flu vaccine we all get each fall, and it also seemed effective in preventing severe COVID-19 cases.
The data showed it wasn’t as effective as thePfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna(MRNA) vaccines already on the market, but few experts had expected that. JNJ was upbeat about the data and analysts said it’s expected to seek quick regulatory approval. Logistically, the JNJ vaccine has a bunch of advantages because it’s a single-injection product that can be stored at much higher temperatures than products made by the other companies.
There was also positive vaccine data from Novavax (NVAX) this week, and its shares jumped more than 60% on Friday. The company is considering filing for U.S. approval, news reports said. Which means in a best-case scenario, the U.S. might soon have four vaccines on the market actively fighting against this horrible pandemic. The U.S. government agreed last year to buy 100 million doses of JNJ’s vaccine.
So maybe those are some things to keep in mind if you’re feeling depressed about how this week turned out.
Surprise, Surprise – Literally one hour after Biden was sworn in, the World Health Organization admitted that PCR testing produces high amplification rates and results and a huge number of false positives.
The WHO released a report today saying that their COVID testing overstates the number of false positives:
literally one hour after Biden takes the oath, the WHO admits that PCR testing at high amplification rates alters the predictive value of the tests and results in a huge number of false positives pic.twitter.com/iDtXmappRw
I was there and nothing even close occurred and no one went to the mansion to do anything but demand answers to questions he can’t answer.
The armed people are there because we were attacked in a coordinated effort by the Governor ordering the State Patrol to bring in ANTIFA (an organization his daughter was tweeting instructions to during the riots in Minneapolis) which injured multiple people and they watch as this group of liberal brown shirt thugs damaged around 15 vehicles.
Big tech has made a serious error in judgment by deciding to update their phones to remove the emergency broadcast system from its phones and engage in Antitrust actions against competitors in-conjunction with other big tech liberal/communist activists.
The banks are announcing that conservatives accounts will be closed. I am an active conservative and Chase just informed me they are closing my account with them and this morning Trump had one of his closed.
These stocks are falling just line all the others and when the insurrection act is engaged these stocks will become the property of the government to do with as they please. I have no idea what they will choose to do but the stock price will collapse like a falling knife.
Get out now and wait until the 20th to see who becomes president. Personally, I sold out of nearly all my holdings and now have shorted big tech.
Big things have already gone down yesterday and more last night. Martial law will be activated and Nancy Pelosi admitted to committing an act of treason by meeting with the military to discuss a coup attempt by her.
She will be arrested before the week is out. IMO
This is getting real right now and for your own safety get liquid real quick. Gold, Silver anything but big tech.
If 14-year Air Force veteran Ashli Babbit, the unarmed white woman who was shot and killed by the Capitol Police, had been a black 12-time felon, Democrats would be outraged and riots would rage throughout our cities. Kamala Harris would proclaim, ‘Ashli Babbit Day,’ and Black Lives Matter would scream in your face at restaurants, “SAY HER NAME!”
If the slain woman had been black; parks, plazas, streets, and legislation would named for her. Rioters led by Antifa would burn down neighborhoods; rob, rape, assault, and murder bystanders with impunity, while the police were forced to stand down. Anyone who stood up to the rioters would be arrested for being insufficiently ‘woke.’
Had Ashli Babbit been lucky enough to be born with black privilege, the worldwide media would be hailing her right now as a hero, a martyr, and a victim, who was murdered by racist police officers simply because of her skin tone. But because she was white, she is portrayed in the media as a villain; as a miscreant malefactor who deserved to die because she supported President Trump.
For those who don’t get it and love to call yourself a patriot but hide in your basement with your guns.
Now you understand why there was never any action against the Clinton’s or Obama, how they destroyed emails and evidence and phones and servers, how they spied and wiretapped, how they lied to FISA, had conversations on the tarmac, sent emails to cover their asses after key meetings, how Comey and Brennan and Clapper never were brought to any justice, how the FBI and CIA lied, how the Steele Dossier was passed along, how phones got factory reset, how leak after leak to an accomplice media went unchecked, why George Soros is always in the shadows, why Romney and Paul and Bush and McCain were all involved, why they screamed Russia and pushed a sham impeachment, why no one ever goes to jail, why no one is ever charged, why nothing ever happens. Why there was no wrongdoing in the FISA warrants, why the Durham report was delayed. Why Hunter will walk guilt free.
Why the FBI sat on the laptop. Why the Biden’s connection to China was overlooked as was unleashed the perfect weapon, a virus that could be weaponized politically to bring down the greatest ever economy and usher in unverifiable mail in voting.
Why the media is 24/7 propaganda and lies, why up is down and down is up, right is wrong and wrong is right.
Why social media silences the First Amendment and speaks over the President of the United States.
This has been the plan by the Deep State all along. They didn’t expect Trump to win in 2016. He messed up their plans. Delayed it a little. They weren’t about to let it happen again.
Covid was weaponized, Governors helped shut down their states, the media helped shame and kill the economy, and the super lucky unverifiable mail in ballots were just the trick to make sure the career politician allegedly with hands in Chinese payrolls that couldn’t finish a sentence or collect a crowd, miraculously became the most popular vote recipient of all time.
You have just witnessed a coup, the overthrow of the US free election system, the end of our constitutional republic, and the merge of capitalism into the slide toward socialism. What will happen next?
Expect the borders to open up. Increased immigration. Expect agencies like CBP and INS and Homeland Security to be muzzled or even deleted.
Law enforcement will see continued defunding. The electoral college will be gone. History erased. Two Supreme Court Justices might be removed. The Supreme Court will be packed.
Your 2nd Amendment will be attacked. If you have a manufacturing job or oil industry job, get ready. If you run a business, brace for impact. Maybe you’ll be on the hook for slavery reparations, or have your suburbs turned into Section 8 housing.
Your taxes are gonna go up, and businesses will pay more. I could go on and on. There is no real recovery from this. The elections from here on will be decided by New York City, Chicago, and California. The Republic will be dead.
Mob rule and appeasement will run rampant. The candidate who offers the most from the Treasury will get the most votes. But the votes voted won’t matter, just the ones received and counted. That precedent has been set.
“Benjamin Franklin was walking out of Independence Hall after the Constitutional Convention in 1787, when someone shouted out, ‘Doctor, what have we got? A republic or a monarchy?’” Franklin responded, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
Ladies and gentlemen, you will now lose your Republic. You turned from God. You turned from family. You turned from country. You embraced degeneracy culture. You celebrated and looked to fools. You worshiped yourselves selfishly as you took for granted what men died to give you. You disregarded history and all it teaches. On your watch, America just died. It’s likely she’ll never be the same again.
Some of you have no idea what you’ve done. Sadly, some of you did. God have mercy on you the soulless!